'Nightmare surge scenario': See latest spaghetti models, radar images of Tropical Storm Helene. (2024)

Cheryl McCloudTreasure Coast Newspapers

Tropical Storm Helene strengthened overnight and is expected to become a hurricane later today, Sept. 25.

Forecasters are predicting Helene could be a Category 3 hurricane with 120-mph winds before it makes landfall in Florida on Thursday. AccuWeather is predicting it's possible the storm could reach Category 4 strength in the Gulf.

Palm Beach County was issued a tropical storm warning before dawn Wednesday, an alert that means damaging winds of over 39 mph are possible within 36 hours.

Broward and Miami Dade counties were issued the same warning leaving only the very farthest western span of the Panhandle free of watches and warnings.

More: Palm Beach County, much of state under tropical storm warning as Helene heads into Gulf

Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Helene

Experts are urging residents to prepare for this large storm, which could bring several life-threatening impacts not only to Florida but hundreds of miles away from where it makes landfall. Dangerous storm surge, flooding rainfall, destructive winds and a threat for tornadoes are all possible.

Landfall currently is predicted to take place along Florida's Big Bend.

Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Helene

Special note about spaghetti models:Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.

Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Helene

Radar images of Tropical Storm Helene

Tropical Storm Helene: What you need to know

Track all active storms

See latest models, graphics, radar images of Tropical Storm Helene

When could Tallahassee, Florida, feel impacts from tropical system?

"Confidence is increasing for potentially significant impacts across our region including high winds, significant and life-threatening storm surge in Apalachee Bay, flash flooding from heavy rainfall, and a few tornadoes," the National Weather Service Tallahassee said.

Widespread tropical impacts are expected across West-Central and Southwest Florida beginning Wednesday night and Thursday, according to the National Weather Service Tampa Bay.

Expected impacts include:

  • Life-threatening storm surge is expected Thursday and Friday. Potential peak surge amounts are 10 to 15 feet from Chassahowitzka to Suwannee River, 6 to 10 feet from Anclote River to Chassahowitzka, 5 to 8 feet from Middle of Longboat Key to Anclote River, 4 to 7 feet from Englewood to Middle of Longboat Key, and 3 to 5 feet from Bonita Beach to Englewood.
  • Flooding rain threat will run from this evening through this weekend with rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts up to 10 inches possible. Even after Helene pulls away, additional rounds of heavy rainfall are expected this weekend.
  • Hurricane and tropical storm force winds will be possible tonight through Thursday night with the highest probabilities along the coast.
  • Isolated tornadoes are possible Thursday across the area.

Weather radar for Tallahassee, Florida

Weather radar for Florida West Coast, Sarasota

What impacts are possible in Florida from Tropical Storm Helene?

Wind."Wind gusts frequenting 100-140 mph are forecast near and just to the east of where Helene lands, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax wind gust of 160 mph," forecasters predicted.

Rain. "Near where Helene makes landfall, general rainfall of 8-12 inches is forecast, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax rainfall of 24 inches."

Excessive rainfall forecast

Storm surge."A storm surge of 15-20 feet is anticipated near and just east of where the eye rolls ashore. At this time, the level of storm surge is most likely in the Big Bend area of Florida. However, a significant storm surge of 6 to perhaps 10 feet will occur through the Tampa area and perhaps as far to the west as Panama City, Florida, depending on the hurricane track," according to AccuWeather.

Tornadoes.A few tornadoes are possible.

Power outages. Widespread power outages are anticipated north and east of where the eye makes landfall.

Watches, warnings issued across Florida

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declares state of emergency

Gov. Ron DeSantishasdeclared a state of emergency for 41 of Florida's 67 countiesin advance of "Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine," according to an executive order released Monday.

Florida won't escape this one. Prepare for major hurricane.

Tuesday morning, he increased the number of counties to 61.

Counties under the state of emergency are:Alachua, Baker, Bay, Bradford, Brevard, Calhoun, Charlotte, Citrus, Clay, Collier, Columbia, DeSoto, Dixie, Duval, Escambia, Flagler, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Glades, Gulf, Hamilton, Hardee, Hendry, Hernando, Highlands, Hillsborough, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafayette, Lake, Lee, Leon, Levy, Liberty, Madison, Manatee, Marion, Monroe, Nassau, Okaloosa, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, Putnam, Santa Rosa, Sarasota, Seminole, St. Johns, Sumter, Suwannee, Taylor, Union, Volusia, Wakulla, Walton, and Washington counties.

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'Nightmare surge scenario': See latest spaghetti models, radar images of Tropical Storm Helene. (2024)

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